1933 AFCA Blue Ribbon Commission Champion

Teams named national champions by NCAA-designated selectors
(Underline: claimed title season; +: co-champion/split selection)

Other Possible Contenders

	Columbia	Michigan	Ohio State	Pittsburgh	Princeton	Southern Cal
Record	8-1	7-0-1	7-1	8-1	9-0	10-1-1
Opponent Win %	0.545	0.603	0.448	0.599	0.558	0.635
+.500 Opponent	4	6	3	6	4	9
Average PF-PA	19.9-5.0	16.4-2.3	20.1-3.3	16.3-1.4	24.1-0.9	21.4-2.5
FBS Record	6-1	7-0-1	7-1	7-1	6-0	8-1-1
FBS Opponent Win %	0.607	0.603	0.448	0.586	0.556	0.678
Average FBS PF-PA	13.4-5.6	16.4-2.3	20.1-3.3	13.8-1.8	17.7-0.3	16.7-3.0
Conference Record	Ind	5-0-1	4-1	Ind	Ind	4-1-1
Non-Home games	3	3	3	3	2	2
SOS (S-R/BR)	37/59	2/10	8/26	20/52	86/56	16/1

From the get-go, there is one team that seems to be a clear longshot: Ohio State. The Buckeyes, according to the math of some folks, played a decent schedule. Despite that and fact they played an all-FBS schedule, a deeper dive into their schedule reveals they have the worst opponent win percentage. Ohio State played only 3 teams with winning record: Top 25-caliber Illinois and Michigan, along with top 50 Vanderbilt. The loss to fellow contender Michigan puts them further behind the 8 ball, despite having the best scoring numbers of the contenders. Dunkel’s choice of the Buckeyes is a definite headscratcher in my book.

Columbia, despite having no selections from NCAA or CFBDW selectors, claim 1933 as their 2nd and final national championship season. The Lions’ claim to a title largely comes from their selection to the Rose Bowl, where they scored an upset victory against PCC co-champion & Top 25-caliber Stanford (the last postseason game by a present-day Ivy League member). Columbia’s inclusion in the game was a gift, as Princeton had been offered the game but declined. Outside of the big win in the Rose Bowl, the Lions didn’t particular wow against their schedule, as they were tied for the worst scoring margin overall and owned the worst against FBS-level competition. Outside of the Stanford game, the Lions lost their only other game against Top 25-caliber opposition (a shutout loss to fellow contender Princeton) and only had 1 other foe in the top 50 with Navy. The Rose Bowl win did give Columbia a transitive path over fellow contender USC and possession of the CFB Belt (college football’s ‘lineal championship’) to end the season.

Pitt, with a CFBDW selection, is my next eastern team to check out. The Panthers are trending on the lower end with their scoring numbers, and their SOS numbers are considered 3rd-worst among the contenders. However, thanks to facing 6 teams with winning records, their opponent win percentages (both overall and against FBS-only games) are 3rd-best. Pitt were also 3rd-best in number of Top 25-caliber games played, handing Duquesne and Nebraska their only losses of the season. The win over the Cornhuskers was arguably the nation’s best based on opponent quality (Nebraska being a consensus Top 5 team based on the ratings sample I use), and they also defeated top 50 Navy by better margins than Columbia and Princeton did. However, a loss at Top 25-caliber Minnesota would stamp out their bid for perfection and give contenders Michigan and Ohio State a transitive chain over the Panthers.

Southern California found themselves in a similar situation as they did in 1929. If you looked at their SOS and scoring numbers without benefit of seeing their record, you would probably assume the Trojans were the best team in the country. 1 of the contemporary NCAA selectors, Williamson, did consider them the nation’s best. USC played the most games against Top 25-caliber opponents (California, Georgia, Oregon, Oregon State, St. Mary’s, Stanford) and had 9 games overall against teams with winning records (all FBS-level). However, they also played the most home-heavy schedule of the contenders. While they would have a strong win over consensus Top 10 Oregon, they would also suffer a loss at home to Stanford and a scoreless draw to Oregon State. Those blemishes, the most of any of the contenders, prevented the Trojans from winning a share of the PCC title and a 3rd straight trip to the Rose Bowl. They would also give a couple of the contenders a path over them, which will probably hamper their case a little more.

Princeton would put together its first undefeated season since 1922 under the guidance of Hall of Fame coach Fritz Crisler, scoring them a co-champion selection from Parke Davis in his only contemporary selection before his passing. The Tigers were very consistent against their schedule, boasting the best scoring offense and defense of the contenders (nationally, they had the best scoring defense and the 2nd-best scoring offense). However, a look at their schedule reveals why they probably had those great statistical numbers, as it is arguably the weakest of the contenders. Princeton faced 3 non-FBS opponents (most of the contenders), only 4 teams with winning records (T-2nd worst), and 3rd-worst opponent win percentage (2nd worst when looking at FBS-only games). The Tigers faced only 1 Top 25-caliber (Columbia) and 1 other top 50 foe (Navy). Princeton has 2 things working in their favor. First is being the only FBS-level team with a perfect record in 1933. Second, their shutout win over Columbia gave them the nation’s best win in terms of national impact, given the Lions’ Rose Bowl win and a transitive path over fellow contender USC. Princeton had been invited to the Rose Bowl but declined, which led to Columbia doing the grunt work for them. I think accepting the berth would’ve helped the Tigers’ case more, as a victory over Stanford would’ve given them an additional Top 25-caliber win and a shorter transitive path over USC.

Finally, we have Big 10 co-champion Michigan, who received the most favor of the contemporary NCAA selectors (3 outright and a co-champion from Parke Davis) and swept all retroactive NCAA selections. The Wolverines managed to post an unbeaten record against a fairly strong schedule as part of a 22-game winning streak that dated back to the 1931 season. They were only 1 of 2 teams in the contender list to play an all-FBS schedule, with the 2nd-best opponent win percentage (3rd for FBS-only games) and playing only 1 team with a losing record. Michigan faced 4 Top 25-caliber teams (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State), accounting for half of their schedule. The shutout win over the fellow contender Buckeyes served as the highlight of the year. However, after close calls against the Illini and Hawkeyes, the Wolverines suffered a scoreless tie to the unbeaten Gophers in the year’s lone blemish. Michigan had the lowest average scoring margin overall and 3rd-lowest in FBS-only games, which is probably the main piece of data working against them (althought that can be justified as a byproduct of a tougher schedule). 1933 was the pinnacle of Wolverine football under coach Harry Kipke, who captured a share of the Big 10 title for a 4th straight year and a 2nd straight claimed national title, including the favored Dickinson System for this year.

Michigan and Princeton are the two with the best case to go before the Blue Ribbon Commission, but who ultimately gets the retroactive Coaches Trophy? The Wolverines had the favor of contemporary rankings for the season and went unbeaten over a strong schedule, but didn’t escape unscathed thanks to the Minnesota tie. The Tigers were the only team with a perfect record and performed more consistently over the course of the season than Michigan did, but played a softer schedule highlighted by 1 big win. Both had 2 wins decided by 1 possession: Michigan’s 2 close games (Illinois, Iowa) were stronger competition than Princeton’s (Dartmouth, Washington & Lee), but the Tigers managed to post a better MOV in their close wins than the Wolverines did. As mentioned earlier, Princeton’s win over Columbia was probably the best any team had and was definitely a better comparative result than Michigan’s Top 25 contests and their win over Navy compares well to Michigan’s win over Michigan State. I give Michigan the edge for Tier 1 because of the historical edge among selectors. Princeton is a solid Tier 2 based on being more consistent and having comparative results: they might can make a case to be named co-champion, but think the resume is lacking enough to deserve an outright title from AFCA over the Wolverines. Columbia really doesn’t measure up as well compared to the other contenders and wouldn’t typically be considered Tier 3 by my normal reasonings, but I give them the nod based on the Rose Bowl win and the transitive edge over USC. My other 3 contenders fall to longshot status due to the head-to-head and transitive chains the other teams have over them.

Tier 1 (Best Case to be awarded AFCA Trophy): Michigan
Tier 2 (Legitimate case for champion/co-champion): Princeton
Tier 3 (Minor Contender, could make a case): Columbia
Tier 4 (Not Serious Contenders): Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Southern California