1945 AFCA Blue Ribbon Commission – Did They Get It Right?

This one is going to be a little different, as 1945 is the lone season to date that the AFCA Blue Ribbon Commission awarded a retroactive Coaches Trophy to. With that, I’m going to analyze the team they did crown (Oklahoma State) to a couple other teams to see how right (or wrong) the commission got it.

Teams named national champions by NCAA-designated selectors
(Underline: claimed title season; +: co-champion/split selection)

Note: Ohio State (7-2) was listed as Billingsley’s non-MOV ratings champion in the NCAA Record Book for 1945. However, upon further evaluation and communication with CFRC (Billingsley’s website), it was noted that this was an error. Army is listed as #1 on the CFRC website for Billingsley’s 1945 non-MOV rating.

	Alabama	Army	Indiana	Oklahoma State
Record	10-0	9-0	9-0-1	9-0
Opponent Win %	0.531	0.680 ^	0.511	0.511
+.500 Opponents	5	6	4	2
Average PF-PA	43.0-8.0	45.8-5.1	27.9-5.6	31.7-8.4
FBS Record	8-0	7-0	8-0-1	9-0
FBS Opponent Win %	0.591	0.702 ^	0.488	0.511
Average FBS PF-PA	44.3-9.1	46.4-4.7	25.9-5.6	31.7-8.4
Conference Record	6-0	Independent	5-0-1	1-0
Non-Home games	5	5	6	7
SOS (S-R/BR)	33/40	5/13	21/9	39/46

Think it’s safe to say the four teams here encapsulate the best teams across the country: Army in the East, Alabama from the South, Indiana for the Midwest, and Oklahoma State for all points west of the Mississippi River. Oklahoma State, under the guidance of John Lookabaugh and led by consensus All-American Bob Fenimore (Heisman runner-up, led nation in total offense), built on the success of their 1944 season with the school’s only undefeated season. The Cowboys, on surface, didn’t play the best schedule, facing only 1 surefire Top 25-caliber opponents (Tulsa) and 1 right at the cutoff of Top 25-caliber (St. Mary’s). Those 2 teams were also the only teams Oklahoma State faced that had a winning record. However, they managed to have an opponent win percentage above .500 as most of their other opponents, including 3 top 50-caliber teams (Oklahoma, SMU, TCU) and MSC champ Denver, were at or just below .500. The Cowboys were the only team of the listed contenders to play an all-FBS schedule and also played the most non-home games of the group, which I think probably also helped them out with the Blue Ribbon Commission.

Let’s start off with Indiana, who won their 1st Big 10 title and recorded their only unbeaten season to date as well. The Hoosiers, on first glance, compare very well to Oklahoma State. Indiana was rated higher than Oklahoma State in the final AP Poll, and in the set of ratings I use in determining Top 25/50 caliber teams, they also had a better rating average. While both had the same overall opponent win percentage, Indiana’s schedule is considered stronger than the Cowboys’ was. The Hoosiers played 4 Top 25-caliber opponents (Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue, Tulsa) and 2 additional top 50 rated foes (Illinois, Minnesota), giving them a slight edge over Oklahoma State in that department. Overall, Indiana also played 4 opponents with winning records compared to Oklahoma State’s 2. However, Indiana’s FBS opponent win percentage drops below Oklahoma State’s when you remove their non-FBS foe from the equation, as they played more teams that finished below .500. The Hoosiers also trailed the Cowboys in non-home games (both overall number and percentage-wise) and had a lesser average MOV. Add in that Indiana did suffer a tie and that Oklahoma State had a better MOV over a common opponent (Tulsa), I think the Hoosiers narrowly find themselves at a disadvantage for a claim. The Hoosiers perhaps would’ve benefitted from a postseason game over a strong opponent to overcome the blemish, but the Big 10 wouldn’t allow their teams to participate in a bowl game until the following season.

Up next is SEC champion Alabama, who put together an outstanding season just 2 years after not fielding a team due to World War II. The Crimson Tide, led by consensus All-Americans Harry Gilmer and Vaughn Mancha, were guided by Hall of Fame coach Frank Thomas in his penultimate season. Alabama played 3 Top 25-caliber opponents (Georgia, LSU, Tennessee) and 3 more top 50 caliber teams (including PCC champ USC). In addition, the Crimson Tide played more teams with a winning record, had better opponent win percentages, and better scoring numbers than the Cowboys did. In the set of ratings used for Top 25/50 caliber determination, the Tide had a better rating average as well over the Cowboys. Alabama also played 2 non-FBS teams and fewer non-home games, which is probably why their SOS isn’t rated much more highly than Oklahoma State’s. The Crimson Tide would end their season with a victory over PCC champion USC in the final Rose Bowl before the Big 10 would begin their partnership with the Granddaddy of Them All. I believe Alabama has a better resume; however, AFCA mentioned in a news article that the Crimson Tide weren’t one of the teams considered by the BRC for the title in 1945. That said, Alabama received a retroactive co-champion selection from the NCF along with a couple of CFBDW selectors. Most years, this Alabama team would’ve been the runaway for a national champion, but there was one other team that received the overwhelming favor.

That team would be Lambert Trophy winner Army, who picked up right where they left off from their 1944 championship campaign with a 2nd consecutive perfect season. Hall of Fame coach Earl Blaik’s squad featured Heisman Trophy winner Doc Blanchard and 3 additional consensus All-Americans (Tex Coulter, Glenn Davis, John Green). Army played 6 Top 25-caliber teams (Duke, Michigan, Navy, Notre Dame, Penn, Wake Forest) along with an additional top 50 foe. Even with playing 2 non-FBS teams, the Cadets ended up with the best opponent win percentage, scoring margins, and schedule strength of the contenders. That said, even though the Cadets played only 4 games at home, only 2 of the non-home games could probably be considered not having an advantage (at Penn, vs Navy in Philadelphia). The other 3 games took place in New York City – less than 50 miles from the West Point campus – against teams outside of the Eastern footprint Army fell in. Considering the 1945 season took place just after World War II officially ended, those games were essentially defacto home games as part of the nation’s celebration of victory. Army’s dominance over the opponent quality is a huge reason they won the AP Poll and swept almost every NCAA selector for this season. It is also why the Blue Ribbon Commission came under ridicule for their selection of Oklahoma State as a retroactive national champion.

So just based on the bodies of work alone, I feel that – in theory – this is how the tiers for best case would’ve worked out.

Tier 1 (Best Case to be awarded AFCA Trophy): Army
Tier 2 (Legitimate case for champion/co-champion): Alabama
Tier 3 (Minor Contender, could make a case): Oklahoma State
Tier 4 (Not Serious Contenders): Indiana

The Defense for ACFA’s Decision

When comparing Oklahoma State to the other teams, it is very easy for us casual fans to say that AFCA got it wrong. Army was just so dominant against such a perceived strong schedule, it’s easy to say nobody else should’ve been named national champions. If co-champions were going to be named, then it seems like the case would be more for the Cadets and Alabama, who was the only team to be as dominant on the season. That said, I am going to offer a defense of AFCA’s decision to name Oklahoma State as a champion for this season.

First, let’s look at the postseason. Army’s season came to an end with their win over Navy, and while the Cadets got to sit at home and bask in the post-WW2 victory glow and on-field accomplishments, Alabama and Oklahoma State stuck their necks out for an additional game to maintain their perfect records. The Crimson Tide and Cowboys both played West Coast teams in their respective bowl games: USC and St. Mary’s. The PCC, strength-wise, was negatively impacted by the war. The Gaels ended up being the strongest team in the West this year, defeating USC head-to-head and would’ve been Top 5 in the final AP Poll had it not been for an upset loss to UCLA (they still finished 7th after a 7-1 regular season). Due to the PCC’s contract with the Rose Bowl, Alabama ended up with the lesser opponent in Pasadena. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s Sugar Bowl contest with St. Mary’s ended up being the premier postseason match-up for the year as the only one to feature 2 teams ranked in the Top 10 of the final AP Poll. That contest sealed the deal for Oklahoma State being the best team west of the Mississippi and worthy of consideration at the very least.

Next, let’s look at the advantages that were and weren’t enjoyed by Oklahoma State compared to their counterparts on the field. Army and Alabama were led by 2 Hall of Fame coaches, while John Lookabaugh wasn’t as heralded despite 7 winning seasons and 3 conference titles in 11 seasons. Next, the level of talent. Army, due to championed changes in the academy’s weight restriction and the relaxed wartime eligibility requirements, were able to amass one of the best rosters in college football history. They were also able to hold on to them for a couple years, whereas teams that benefited from talent influx due to the Navy V-12 program only held on to players for a season at best. Oklahoma State didn’t have the benefit of a talent boost from a military training program – there was a Navy training program on campus, but they didn’t encourage/allow athletic participation (they did have some war veterans on the 1945 team). While Army had 4 consensus All-Americans and their entire starting 11 was named to at least one team, Oklahoma only had 1 consensus All-American in Fenimore and 2 total with Neill Armstrong. The flip side of the talent differential thanks to the war effort was that Army wasn’t playing against equal competition in 1944 and 1945, while Oklahoma State was probably more in line with the rest of the country from a talent perspective. How important Bob Fenimore was to the Cowboys also couldn’t be overstated. Oklahoma State was 17-1 over 1944 and 1945 seasons with a healthy Fenimore who led the nation in total offense both years: when he was limited by injury in 1946, the Cowboys didn’t enjoy the same level of success. Army, meanwhile, was still a national title contender in 1946 after the loss of talent due to either graduation or wartime eligibility relaxations coming to an end – although not as dominant as the players returning from the war returned to the fray at other schools.

Lastly, the schedule is taken into play. Of the contenders listed, Oklahoma State’s schedule wasn’t rated as well as the others and Army’s was arguably the best of the contenders. As mentioned above, Army was playing with a stacked deck against their schedule. The Cadets, even though they played the better schedule, also had the most favorable atmospheres in the majority of their games (as reasoned above). In addition, the Cadets also faced 2 non-FBS quality military teams that were nowhere near the strength of some of the ones that other schools (including Oklahoma State’s 1944 squad) competed against during the 1940s. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, faced an all-FBS schedule, the only one of the contenders to do so. In addition, they also played the least home-heavy schedule of my contenders, as they only had 2 true home games and a ‘neutral’ site game against SMU played in Oklahoma City. The Cowboys, in total, played 5 road games in addition to their Sugar Bowl appearance in New Orleans.

Ultimately, I believe that the Blue Ribbon Commission took into consideration that Army was essentially an all-star team playing in mostly favorable atmospheres against generally overmatched opponents. I also believe that they took into consideration that Oklahoma State, while more in line with the other teams around the country, played the least favorable atmospheres and also were willing to defend their perfect record in the postseason. I think that allows AFCA to justify Oklahoma State’s claim to a national title for the year. It also justifies their stance of stating they would declare co-champions if Army submitted a claim for the 1945 title, as Army was clearly the best team of the East and Oklahoma State was the best team west of the Mississippi River. My only knock against AFCA’s decision would be their assessment that those were the only 2 teams they considered, as Alabama was almost as dominant as Army statistically and played a schedule at least slightly stronger than Oklahoma State’s. The Crimson Tide were probably worthy of at least co-champion consideration as well.