AFCA Blue Ribbon Commission Evaluation Process
Listed here is my evaluation process for trying to determine the teams that would have best chance for a retroactive Coaches Trophy from the AFCA Blue Ribbon Commission.
AFCA’s Blue Ribbon Commission Process: As noted in the main page, I will look at the following factors that were identified to me by AFCA in my research as the main components the BRC apparently used in their process.
- Ratings from the time period (will note as close to contemporary as possible according to the NCAA-designated selector list)
- Head-to-head competition
- Comparative scores with like teams
- Consistency throughout the playing year
Teams chosen for Evaluation: The following are what I am looking for when evaluating as potential BRC candidates
- NCAA-designated selections: Any teams chosen as a recognized selector in the NCAA FBS Record Book for a season are my primary candidates for evaluation. Those teams will be identified with their selectors listed as well.
- CFBDW-designated selections: Most teams (within reason) listed by selectors of CFBDW not already included in the NCAA selector list will also be looked at for evaluation. I will not list their specific selectors but will note that they have a CFBDW selection.
- Self-claimed champions: Any team that lists a season as a ‘national championship’ season without any backing from a NCAA or CFBDW selector.
- Other factors: If I come across a team that is unbeaten, would be highly rated that has no existing title claim/selector favor, or rated #1 by a system not recognized by the NCAA or CFBDW, I will include them as well.
Evaluation Table: Teams chosen for evaluation will have main highlights (NCAA-designated selections, conference champions, best/notable wins, losses, ties) listed, then placed in a table that have the following items listed side by side:
- Records: Overall and FBS-only records are listed. If teams are in a conference, their conference records will be listed as well.
- +.500 Opponents: Number of teams faced with a winning record.
- Average PF-PA: The average points fielded and points allowed for overall games and FBS-only games will be listed.
- Non-home games: number of games played away from a team’s home field (whether away, neutral, or bowl game). If there are games that are technically home games for a team that are played at a different venue, those are also noted.
- SOS: Strength of schedule ratings from Sports-Reference and Richard Billingsley are listed to show comparisons. Since I haven’t rated back to the BRC window in the RPR yet, these 2 systems were easy to find as they actually list them in their team pages and ratings.
Top 25-Caliber Opponents: I will also note games played against Top 25-caliber opposition. I have looked at a pool of various rating systems available online (listed below) to determine those teams. A team listed as “Top 25-caliber” is a team that averages out #1-25 across these ratings. A team listed as “in consideration” or “close to/around cutoff”, etc. are teams that average out #26-35 across these ratings (which I think would be a fair window for ‘receiving votes’ in a hypothetical poll)
- James Vautravers’ Tip Top 25 (hypothetical pre-1936 and retroactively reranked AP Polls)
- Richard Billingsley’s Billingsley Report (NCAA-designated selector)
- Jon Dokter’s Entropy Ratings
- Benjamin Hatch’s Hatch Rankings
- James Howell’s Football Power Ratings (CFBDW-designated selector)
- Sports-Reference College Football Simple Rating System (found in ‘Team Ratings’ for each individual season)
- Soren Sorenson’s College Football Ratings (CFBDW-designated selector)
- Ray Wait’s Historical Retrodictive Ratings
- David Wilson’s Wilson Performance Ratings (CFBDW-designated selector)